Analyst values Anthropic at $150 billion ahead of reported $2 trillion IPO

By Splitfeed EditorialLast updated Oct 8, 2026, 11:50 UTC

In early October 2026, research firm New Constructs published a valuation of Anthropic placing the AI company at approximately $150 billion, a figure roughly 92 to 93 percent below the $2 trillion valuation Anthropic is reported to be targeting for a potential IPO. The firm labeled the prospective offering the most ridiculous IPO of 2026 and described it as an unprecedented test of investor gullibility. A separate data point emerged from a Business Insider report in which a tech audience was polled on whether they would purchase Anthropic shares at an even higher figure, $3 trillion, and only three people raised their hands.

The dispute centers on how to value a company that is growing rapidly but losing money at scale. Anthropic disclosed an operating loss of $8.06 billion on $4.6 billion in revenue for 2025, figures that sit uncomfortably against any valuation in the trillions. The gap between what a skeptical analyst thinks the fundamentals support and what Anthropic is said to be seeking is not a minor rounding difference but a chasm measuring in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Whether that gap reflects a broken valuation methodology, a market willing to price in a transformative future, or something between the two is the core question the IPO, if it proceeds, would force investors to answer.

The Pro-AI camp has not yet weighed in publicly on this story. Typically, advocates in that camp would argue that frontier AI companies command premium valuations because their potential to reshape entire industries justifies pricing far beyond near-term financials. The Anti-AI camp is pointing directly at the loss figures, with the account happycoinnews.bsky.social highlighting the $8.06 billion operating loss against $4.6 billion in revenue as evidence that the business model does not yet work at any valuation close to $2 trillion. The Middle Ground perspective, represented by LinksGraph, frames the issue more conditionally, noting that New Constructs itself acknowledged a $2 trillion valuation would require exceptional growth and profitability, leaving open the question of whether Anthropic could plausibly achieve those conditions.

The clearest next marker to watch is whether Anthropic files formally for an IPO and at what valuation it sets its initial price range. That filing would either force the company to defend its numbers publicly or signal that the $2 trillion figure was always a negotiating position rather than a firm target.