Michael Burry moves AI bubble burst prediction to 2027

By Splitfeed EditorialLast updated Sep 30, 2026, 07:30 UTC

Michael Burry, the investor whose 2008 housing-collapse bet was chronicled in 'The Big Short,' posted his revised AI forecast around September 28, 2026, moving his predicted bubble burst from 2028 to 2027. He described himself as 'more confident than ever' in the new timeline, and attributed the shift to a single weekend of research. He also argued that one season of disappointing revenue from AI companies could be enough to trigger a broader market collapse, and separately contended that President Trump 'cannot afford' to let the AI boom fail, implying political as well as economic stakes. The revision lands as Anthropic is reportedly pursuing an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion, a figure that illustrates the scale of the valuations Burry appears to be challenging.

The context matters because Burry carries unusual credibility among skeptics. His 2008 call was widely dismissed before it proved correct, so even a vague forecast from him tends to move sentiment. His original 2028 timeline was already a minority position against prevailing AI optimism; pulling it forward by a year sharpens the confrontation with that consensus. The specific mechanism he points to, a single weak revenue season, is also notable because it sets a relatively low bar for collapse, suggesting he thinks the current valuation structure is fragile rather than merely overextended.

No reactions from the Pro-AI, Anti-AI, or Middle Ground camps have been published yet. Typically, the Pro-AI camp would argue that Burry is pattern-matching to past bubbles without accounting for AI's genuine productivity gains and the depth of enterprise demand. The Anti-AI camp would likely treat his revised forecast as validation of concerns they have held for some time, pointing to the gap between infrastructure spending and demonstrated returns. A middle-ground position would probably acknowledge both that valuations look stretched and that the timing of any correction is nearly impossible to call with precision, treating Burry's confidence as interesting but not dispositive.

The argument will sharpen around AI company earnings reports in the coming quarters. If major players post revenue figures that fall short of the growth rates baked into their valuations, that would be the first concrete test of Burry's one-bad-season thesis. Anthropic's IPO process, if it proceeds toward a public filing, would also force a public accounting of its financials and give markets a hard number to argue over.