AMD up 187% this year while Nvidia gained 22% in 2026

By Splitfeed EditorialLast updated Sep 26, 2026, 19:17 UTC

Through late September 2026, AMD shares had climbed 187% for the year while Nvidia posted a comparatively modest 22% gain over the same period. Reports from Yahoo Finance and The Motley Fool, both dated September 24, framed this gap as something of a puzzle, then argued that Nvidia is nevertheless the likelier outperformer over the following 12 months. A separate Barchart analysis published September 23 shifted attention further down the supply chain, identifying chip equipment manufacturers Applied Materials and Lam Research as potentially stronger long-term beneficiaries of AI-driven semiconductor demand than the chip designers drawing most of the attention.

The numbers matter because they complicate a narrative that had positioned Nvidia as the dominant, nearly untouchable winner of the AI hardware cycle. A 187% gain for AMD against Nvidia's 22% suggests the market spent at least part of 2026 repricing AMD's competitive position upward, whether on the strength of new product lines, customer diversification, or shifting expectations about AI accelerator supply. At the same time, the analyst consensus pointing to Nvidia as the next-12-months winner implies that AMD's surge may already reflect optimism that is difficult to sustain, while Nvidia's relative underperformance in 2026 could signal room to recover. The equipment-maker argument adds a separate layer, suggesting that regardless of which chip designer wins market share, the companies supplying the tools to build fabs may capture value more consistently.

None of the three camps, Pro-AI, Anti-AI, or Middle Ground, had published reactions to this story at the time of writing. Pro-AI voices would typically treat both AMD's gains and the equipment-maker thesis as evidence that AI infrastructure investment is broad and durable, lifting the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Anti-AI commentators would likely argue that the valuation swings across these companies reflect speculative excess rather than underlying earnings fundamentals. A middle-ground position would probably focus on the analyst prediction itself, noting that near-term stock forecasts in a sector this volatile carry significant uncertainty regardless of the direction called.

The argument between AMD optimists and Nvidia bulls will find its next concrete test in each company's upcoming quarterly earnings releases, where revenue figures from data center and AI accelerator segments will either support or challenge the valuations the market has assigned through late September.